Friday 14 May 2010

So what does it all mean

Well the deed has been done. After what must have been the most extraordinary election contest in living memory we now have the outcome no one predicted.

I am not sure how I feel about things - strangely buoyant i think for lots of unrelated reasons. In no particular order some of the extra-ordinary aspects of this election are:

Michael and Costandina both became politicised - almost overnight. The televised debates were probably the catalyst for this. But both of them went from disinterest to real engagement. It was lovely to see Costandina thinking carefully about what the choices were and trying to make up her own mind. Michael weighed in with with a much more black and white view as young teenagers are wont to do. The time for shades of grey is still some years off for Michael.

The TV debates were much better than anyone expected. They were staged and closely controlled but I still came away with a grudging admiration for all 3 leaders for acquitting themselves pretty well. 4 1/2 hours is a hell of a long time to remember all of your pat quotes and stock answers. Frequently having to respond on their feet to the responses of the other speakers it was deceptively testing ordeal I felt. It also spoke volumes that all 3 for calculated reasons felt obliged to act consensual. This stopped it degenerating into a slinging match and made it slightly more edifying.

The outcome was so much better than it could have been. Labour were lacking in va va va voom after 13 years in power and Gordon was deeply disliked as a dithering disconnected leader. It could have - should have - been a romp home for the Conservatives. That it wasn't is a phenomenal victory for Gordon Brown. The doomsday scenario was a Conservative majority that used the excuse of needing to make budget cuts to bring the deficit down to brutally dismantle whole swathes of the what Labour had patiently built up. That is now not going to happen. I think history will be kinder to Gordon than the current spate of obituaries. I also wonder whether there will be a simmering resentment against David Cameron from back benchers and the grass routes as to why didn't they do better.

The negotiations over forming the Coalition government were a master class in negotiation tactics and British restraint.

They were conducted in the full glare of the spotlight yet there were no leaks, no rush, no histrionics, no grandstanding. Democracy was the winner and an unusual level of statesmanship displayed. After the unedifying spectacle of the expenses scandal, no-one would have banked on such dignity and leadership.

Nick Clegg stuck to his guns and wouldn't be rushed despite enormous pressure to do so. The endgame was never a formality. The country was gripped with negotiation madness with everyone doing the maths and not coming up with a clear winner of a solution. That both Cameron and Clegg decided to rise above the obvious difficulties and fashion a result that no-one expected is a credit to their negotiating skills and vision. Both Cameron and Clegg appear to have made genuine and significant concessions. Concessions that have been difficult to sell to their respective parties and may yet unravel.

Will the Lib Dems be a genuine partner and be able to ameliorate the worst instinct of the gutter right - who knows? Has Clegg sold his soul to sup with the devil - maybe?

Does the country have to make swinging cuts in expenditure - yep. Would Labour have had to make profoundly unpopular cuts if they had held onto power - yep. Is it better that we have a credibly stable government that can have a go at making the necessary cuts without the imminent fear of electoral collapse - on balance I think so.

I think so because I don't think it was in Labour's interest to have to go to the people again in a few months time when a minority government may have collapsed. It would not have had enough time to get its house in order and elect a new leader. There would have been a huge risk of the people saying - Sod this, lets just put the Tories for a go.

As it is Labour is in so much better a position to rebuild that it might have been. It hasn't been decimated. There is still a significant parliamentary party to mount a vigorous opposition. It didn't have the numbers to make a minority Government work. Only just mind you. But then again the Tories were only just short of making it work on their own as well. It was so so delicately balanced.

The extraordinary accuracy of the exit polls was also remarkable. 10 minutes after the polls closed they issued their first prediction and got it unbelievably accurate. They were only one seat out. They called in 307 for the Tories and they got 306. That's after 10 minutes of the polls closing and bearing in mind there had been major electoral boundary changes since the last election, a resurgent Lib Dem party that no-one knew had to calculate and a late surge back to Labour. All massively increasing the unpredictability of calling the result.

A remarkable few weeks